Oz, Fetterman Nearly Tied In Post-Debate Poll As Senate Control Swings In GOP’s Favor

Topline

Mehmet Oz (R) has a two-point lead over Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in the race for the Pennsylvania Senate, according to the latest poll taken after their October debate where Fetterman’s communication issues plagued his performance.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 09: Dr. Oz visits "Outnumbered Overtime with Harris Faulkner" at Fox News ... [+] Channel Studios on March 09, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

A total of 48% of voters support Oz, compared to 46% of voters who back Fetterman, according to an Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters taken October 28-31 (margin of error 3).

Oz has gained five points since Emerson’s September poll that found 43% of voters backed Oz, while 45% supported Fetterman.

A majority of voters, 54%, expect Oz to win the race, while 47% said they believe Fetterman will win, according to the survey.

Fetterman has consistently polled ahead of Oz throughout the race (he was up by more than 10 points in September, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average), but his lead has narrowed in the final stretch before Election Day and now stands at less than one point.

A second poll taken by Monmouth University days after the debate shows Fetterman maintaining his lead, with 48% of 608 voters saying they will probably or definitely vote for Fetterman and 44% backing Oz (margin of error 4.5).

Key Background

Fetterman struggled to communicate at times during his first and only debate with Oz last month after a stroke he had in May left him with auditory processing issues. Oz has seized on Fetterman’s health issues to attack his opponent and claim he is not healthy enough to serve in the Senate. Fetterman, meanwhile, has billed Oz as an untrustworthy “scam artist” who peddled dubious medical advice during his career as a television doctor. The race is one of several key Senate contests that has swung toward Republicans in the final days of the campaign as voters’ concerns about the economy remain paramount in the upcoming election. On Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight changed its Senate forecast to favor Republicans for the first time since July, predicting they now have a 54% chance of winning control of the upper chamber.

Big Number

3.8. That’s the percentage of undecided voters, according to Emerson. 40% of undecided voters said they are more likely to vote for Fettermann, while 22% are more likely to vote for Oz.

What To Watch For

President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama will campaign for Fetterman and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro in Philadelphia on Saturday.

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