Topline
Gas prices are steadily but slowly dropping ahead of July Fourth and further relief at the pump may be coming ahead of one the most popular driving days of the year, though prices are still elevated compared to 2021.
Gas prices are displayed at a gas station in California in April.
Key Facts
The average national gas price Monday is $4.897 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, which is down 12 cents from its peak of $5.016 on June 14.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, predicted Sunday the national average for gas prices could fall to as low as $4.75 by July Fourth as crude oil prices fall.
That would still represent a more than 50% increase from last July Fourth, when the national average gallon of gas was $3.13, per AAA.
Contra
Despite the recent cooling in gas prices, it’s unlikely gas prices will fall as quickly as they surged. Gabe Ortega, PDI Software’s fuel pricing practice leader, told Newsweek, “It's hard to see the case for prices coming down in a meaningful way in July” with demand not dropping, an inability to increase refinery capacity and relatively high oil prices.
What To Watch For
One way prices could fall immediately are gas tax holidays at the federal or state levels. President Joe Biden called for a three-month suspension of the 18-cent federal gas tax last week, though Biden’s proposal has failed to rally much legislative support. Several states have paused their own gas taxes, which can cost consumers more than 50 cents per gallon.
Tangent
A suggested gas boycott designed to drive down prices from July 3-July 5 has gone viral on social media, and a TikTok video posted earlier this month introducing the boycott has racked up more than 14 million views and 2.4 million likes. De Haan told WRAL the boycott is “not going to work” because consumers simply filling up their tanks before the boycott period doesn’t effectively shift demand.
Further Reading
Summer Jam: July 4th Weekend Will Set Road-Tripping Record, Says AAA (Forbes)
July Fourth Will Be Most Expensive Travel Weekend In Years (Forbes)
What Is A Federal Gas Tax Holiday? Here’s How It Could Impact Prices At The Pump. (Forbes)
