Jason Mercier Missed 2 Shots at WSOP 2013 Bracelet Bet

Posted By: Date: 06/14/2013 at 12:00 am Leave a comment

Before the start of the 44th Annual World Series of Poker on May 29, Team PokerStars Pro Jason Mercier announced that he would take 3:1 odds on a prop bet from any interested party that he would win a WSOP bracelet in 2013. Although he’s been entering as many events as possible, and has been caught multi-tabling two events once already, he has landed himself in two bubbles, but has yet to fulfill the bracelet victory he seems so sure of achieving. 

Mercier cashed in two events last week, but failed to make the final table in either, much less bring home a bracelet. He finished in the 27th spot in Event #12, Pot Limit Holdem, earning a $5,185 paycheck on June 5. Four days later, he landed in the 22nd position of Event #19, another PLO tournament, earning $7,881.

When Jason first proposed the prop bet, saying he would pay 3x on any wager against him to win a WSOP bracelet, some called it “insane”. The general consensus from poker fans on the TwoPlusTwo forums was that Mercier does not have a 25% of winning a bracelet, as his odds would imply, essentially making it a good bet for anyone besides Mercier himself. Statistically speaking, however, it may not be all that far-fetched.

The Team PokerStars Pro is just 26 years old, and has cashed in 81 live poker tournaments, racking up nearly 10 million in winnings thus far ($9,765,308). He has participated in the World Series of Poker for the last five years straight. In that time, he has won 2 WSOP bracelets, the first in 2009 and another in 2011. Two bracelets in 5 years equates to a 40% success rate, significantly higher than the implied 25% probability. Add to that Mercier’s recent success rate, and Mercier just may have a very solid prop bet on his hands.

On Nay 6, Mercier was the outright victor of EPT Monte Carlo’s Event #2 Open Face Chinese Poker, worth $68,857. Earlier that day, he finished 7th in the EPT Monte Carlo Main Event NL Holdem Championship, earning him $196,528. The very next week, on May 13, Mercier played in the EPT Monte Carlo NL Holdem Super High Roller event, where he made the final table and went heads up against German poker pro Max Altergott. Mercier fell just shy of the EPT victory, taking 2nd place for a $1.6 million payday.

For those who love to find patterns in random, everyday life, Jason should be due for his next bracelet this year. He did not win a bracelet in 2008, but won his first in 2009. He then missed a 1st place win at the 2010 WSOP, but took his second bracelet in 2011. Again, he fell short in 2012, making 2013 his pattern-based year for bracelet-awarding success.

It is unknown just how many people took Jason up on his WSOP prop bet, but we do know that Daniel “jungleman12” Cates showed interest, and likely put some green down on it. The basic rules of the prop bet were that interested parties would have to bet a minimum of $1,000 against Mercier’s $3,000, and that anyone he didn’t know personally or by solid reputation could place a bet via escrow to ensure all debts would be paid when the time comes.

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